博物馆类建筑工程费用估算研究

如何将建设资金控制在批复限额内,防止“三超”现象的出现,是博物馆类建筑投资估算编制的难点。分析博物馆类建筑的设计特点,梳理博物馆类建筑工程费用估算编制中的应注意的问题,总结出其不同于一般公共建筑工程费用构成的特点,旨在为博物馆类建筑工程费用估算的编制提供借鉴。     

Linking of sample data to small areas

We consider methods for estimating the means of survey variables in domains of a finite population, where sample sizes are too small to obtain reliable direct estimates. We construct generalized compositions from the direct and traditional design-based synthetic estimators and propose the methodology for evaluating their coefficients. This methodology measures similarities among sample elements and estimates of the domain means. We propose the compositions for two cases of auxiliary information: domain-level characteristics are available; true means of auxiliary variables are available for the estimation domains, and unit-level auxiliary vectors are known for the sample elements. In the simulation study, we show where the generalized compositions improve the traditional synthetic and composite estimators.     

Moral hazard and subsidized crop insurance

Along with adverse selection, moral hazard is one of the major hurdles that private and public insurance plans must contend with. Moral hazard occurs if risks are endogenous to a producer's behavior and if the insurer is unable to properly monitor the insured. We review the role of moral hazard in the US crop insurance program. We conduct an empirical analysis of one important aspect of the US crop insurance program—prevented planting. This provision provides indemnity payments if conditions are not suitable for planting. The program has been the subject of considerable controversy, especially during 2019, when the rate of claims is expected to be especially high. Because loss adjustors may encounter difficulties in assessing the weather conditions associated with prevented planting claims, the program is susceptible to moral hazard. We consider the extent to which prevented planting claims may be endogenous to prices. We find significant evidence of moral hazard. The likelihood of prevented planting claims increases as the expected market price decreases or as fertilizer costs increase for corn and soybeans in the Prairie Pothole Region and for grain sorghum and cotton in all states.     

Semiparametric time series models driven by latent factor

We introduce a class of semiparametric time series models (SemiParTS) driven by a latent factor process. The proposed SemiParTS class is flexible because, given the latent process, only the conditional mean and variance of the time series are specified. These are the primary features of SemiParTS: (i) no parametric form is assumed for the conditional distribution of the time series given the latent process; (ii) it is suitable for a wide range of data: non-negative, count, bounded, binary, and real-valued time series; (iii) it does not constrain the dispersion parameter to be known. The quasi-likelihood inference is employed in order to estimate the parameters in the mean function. Here, we derive explicit expressions for the marginal moments and for the autocorrelation function of the time series process so that a method of moments can be employed to estimate the dispersion parameter and also the parameters related to the latent process. Simulated results that aim to check the proposed estimation procedure are presented. Forecasting procedures are proposed and evaluated in simulated and real data. Analyses of the number of admissions in a hospital due to asthma and a total insolation time series illustrate the potential for practical situations that involve the proposed models.     

乘积型指数滤波器及其在多目标时延估计中的应用

指数滤波器是一类新构造出来的输出信噪比和目标时延分辨力随指数变化的滤波器，该滤波器在损失一定输出信噪比的前提下可以有效提高目标时延分辨力，从而提高目标时延估计精度,但仅采用单个指数滤波器仍存在输出信噪比和目标时延分辨力均达不到实际需求的情况。在乘积型高阶模糊函数乘积运算的启发下，在指数滤波器的基础上提出了一种新的乘积型指数滤波器，并分析了该乘积型指数滤波器的输出信噪比及目标时延分辨力等性能。仿真实验表明，所提的乘积型指数滤波器在低信噪比情况下可以更有效提高多目标时延估计精度，且算法简单易于实现，适用于背景复杂的多目标参数估计任务。     

Returns to women’s education using optimal IV selection

This paper investigates returns to women’s education by applying an optimal IV selection approach, post-Lasso IV estimation, which improves the first-stage predictive relationship between an endogenous regressor and instruments. Using the 2010 American Community Survey, we find that an extra year of education increases married women’s own income by $4,480 and spouse income by $8,822. Our findings indicate that 53% of the increase in women’s consumption by education is attributed to the marriage market, and thus, we conclude that the marriage market is the primary channel through which education improves women’s well-being. The results demonstrate the advantages of the post-Lasso approach: The resulting two-stage least squares estimator maintains efficiency without increasing finite sample bias and is less subject to the inconsistency problem when some instruments are invalid; This differs from the results using the instrument of birth quarters only, which is mostly applied in studies on returns to education.     

Simplified Jackknife Variance Estimates for Fuzzy Measures of Multidimensional Poverty

In this paper, we present a practical methodology for variance estimation for multi‐dimensional measures of poverty and deprivation of households and individuals, derived from sample surveys with complex designs and fairly large sample sizes. The measures considered are based on fuzzy representation of individuals' propensity to deprivation in monetary and diverse non‐monetary dimensions. We believe this to be the first original contribution for estimating standard errors for such fuzzy poverty measures. The second objective is to describe and numerically illustrate computational procedures and difficulties in producing reliable and robust estimates of sampling error for such complex statistics. We attempt to identify some of these problems and provide solutions in the context of actual situations. A detailed application based on European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data for 19 NUTS2 regions in Spain is provided.     

改进高阶容积粒子滤波的系统状态估计算法

传统粒子滤波（PF）直接采用状态转移先验分布作为重要性密度函数来近似后验概率密度函数，使得后验概率密度函数未包含量测信息。针对此问题，提出了一种改进高阶容积粒子滤波(CPF)的系统状态估计算法。算法采用七阶正交容积卡尔曼滤波（7th-CQKF）对PF的粒子进行传递，使得先验分布更新阶段融入最新量测信息；通过7th-CQKF设计重要性密度函数，提高对状态后验概率密度的逼近程度；通过反比例函数计算粒子权重，突出大噪声粒子与小噪声粒子权重差别，提高粒子有效性。仿真结果表明，改进高阶容积粒子滤波的估计精度高于容积粒子滤波（CPF）。     

Are microfinance markets monopolistic?

Do microfinance institutions (MFIs) operate in a monopoly, monopolistic competition environment or are their revenues derived under perfect competition markets? We employ the Panzar–Rosse revenue test on a global panel data to assess the competitive environment in which MFIs of five selected countries operate: Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Peru and Philippines, over the period 2005–2009. We estimate the static and the dynamic revenue tests, with analyses of the interest rate and the return on assets. We control for microfinance-specific variables such as capital-assets-ratio, loans-assets and the size of the MFI. The analyses also account for the endogeneity problem by employing the fixed-effects two-stage least squares and the fixed-effects system generalized method of moments. Our results suggest that MFIs in Peru and India operate in a monopolistic environment. We also find weak evidence that the microfinance industry in Ecuador, Indonesia and Philippines may operate under perfect competition.     

Duration of price promotion and product profit: An in-depth study based on point-of-sale data

Anecdotal evidence has shown that retail price promotions can help small and medium-sized retailers enhance their sales, and thus profits. However, most marketing managers usually stop a promotion after a certain duration. This study aims to explain why these retailers discontinue their price promotion. Our approach posits that overall contributions of a price promotion to the product profit progressively diminish with time. In this study, we present a theoretical framework to explain the relationship between duration and profit effects of price promotion and propose statistical models to empirically examine this framework using point-of-sale (POS) data. Our findings provide empirical support that the effect of price promotion on the product profit has a downward trend with elapsed time. The results are helpful for marketers to understand how price promotions dynamically influence product profit and when the promotion should be terminated.